The Daily Mail: Ignore climate change and 100m people will die by 2030, shocking new report claims

February 11, 2013

Source: The Daily Mail

More than 100 million people will die and  global economic growth will be cut by 3.2 percent of gross domestic product  (GDP) by 2030 if the world fails to tackle climate change, a report commissioned  by 20 governments has claimed.

As global average temperatures rise due to  greenhouse gas emissions, the effects on the planet, such as melting ice caps,  extreme weather, drought and rising sea levels, will threaten populations and  livelihoods, said the report conducted by humanitarian organisation  DARA.

It calculated that five million deaths occur  each year from air pollution, hunger and disease as a result of climate change  and carbon-intensive economies, and that toll would likely rise to six million a  year by 2030 if current patterns of fossil fuel use continue

The report warns that devastating changes to the earth  would lead to 100m deaths and the end of many animal’s habitats.

More than 90 percent of those deaths will  occur in developing countries, said the report that calculated the human and  economic impact of climate change on 184 countries in 2010 and 2030.

It was commissioned by the Climate Vulnerable  Forum, a partnership of 20 developing countries threatened by climate  change.

‘A combined climate-carbon crisis is  estimated to claim 100 million lives between now and the end of the next  decade,’ the report said.

It said the effects of climate change had  lowered global output by 1.6 percent of world GDP, or by about $1.2 trillion a  year, and losses could double to 3.2 percent of global GDP by 2030 if global  temperatures are allowed to rise, surpassing 10 percent before 2100.

It estimated the cost of moving the world to  a low-carbon economy at about 0.5 percent of GDP this decade.

British economist Nicholas Stern told Reuters  earlier this year investment equivalent to 2 percent of global GDP was needed to  limit, prevent and adapt to climate change.

His report on the economics of climate change  in 2006 said an average global temperature rise of 2-3 degrees Celsius in the  next 50 years could reduce global consumption per head by up to 20  percent.

Temperatures have already risen by about 0.8  degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times.

Climate change could dramatically alter cities such as  Sao Paulo, researchers say.

Almost 200 nations agreed in 2010 to limit  the global average temperature rise to below 2C (3.6 Fahrenheit) to avoid  dangerous impacts from climate change.

But climate scientists have warned that the  chance of limiting the rise to below 2C is getting smaller as global greenhouse  gas emissions rise due to burning fossil fuels.

The world’s poorest nations are the most  vulnerable as they face increased risk of drought, water shortages, crop  failure, poverty and disease.

On average, they could see an 11 percent loss  in GDP by 2030 due to climate change, DARA said.

‘One degree Celsius rise in temperature is  associated with 10 percent productivity loss in farming.

‘For us, it means losing about 4 million  metric tonnes of food grain, amounting to about $2.5 billion.

‘That is about 2 percent of our GDP,’  Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina said in response to the  report.

‘Adding up the damages to property and other  losses, we are faced with a total loss of about 3-4 percent of GDP.’

Even the biggest and most rapidly developing  economies will not escape unscathed.

The United States and China could see a 2.1  percent reduction in their respective GDPs by 2030, while India could experience  a more than 5 percent loss.
The  full report is available here