December 6, 2010

Source: International Business Times

Approximately 5 million people will die over the next ten years due to climate change. They are currently dying at a pace of 350,000 per year, and that rate will increase to one million fatalities per year by 2030, according to a new study published by humanitarian research organization DARA in conjunction with  the Climate Vulnerable Forum, a group of vulnerable countries.

The “Climate Vulnerability Monitor: The State of the Climate Crisis” classifies 184 countries across the world according to their vulnerability to climate change on four key areas of impact (health, weather disasters, habitat loss and economic stress) to produce an overall vulnerability ranking ranging from low to acute.

Much of today’s impacts are highly concentrated in some 50 acutely vulnerable low-income countries, urgently needing assistance. The US and Spain are the only advanced industrialized countries in the world to fall into the ‘high’ vulnerability category. Remarkably, when the same methodology is used to assess all countries, the US and Spain register levels of vulnerability similar to major emerging nations such as China, Iran, Indonesia and the Philippines, or African nations like Gabon, Ghana and Egypt.

In general, the vulnerability of the US and Spain to climate change, unlike a number of other industrialised nations, is on the steady increase. The Monitor also reveals that $150 billion is currently lost from the global economy today, moving to around $300 billion by 2030 because of climate change, over half of which fall on major industrialised nations like the US and much of Europe.

The US has the largest total economic loss of any country in the world due to climate change.

The US has ‘acute’ vulnerability to human habitat loss because of desertification and sea level rise. It is seen as one of the top ten ‘hot spots’ worldwide for people at risk because of desertification and for damages caused by more extreme weather. Spain also registers ‘acute’ because of habitat loss linked to desertification.

While the US tops the list of total impacts, many other countries are much worse affected in relative terms: in the South Pacific climate-driven economic losses average more than 4% of GDP. Topping the most-vulnerable list are low-lying island nations and fragile states. Afghanistan and Somalia in particular are both rated in the highest category on the majority of the criteria.

“These countries are at the brink. The harshest places on earth are also open wounds. Research implies significant climate stresses already today. That’s a dangerous trigger in a seriously unstable environment,” said Ross Moundan, the head of DARA, who also led UN operations in the Iraq War and other troubled regions.

“Added pressure like this fuels more hunger, poverty and desperation that can only breed violence and crime like piracy,” Mountain said. “The ramping up of that pressure is adding up. We can spend billions policing these places or on emergency assistance for disasters waiting to happen. Or we can shift the focus and fight disease, promote education and take preventative measures. All of that is relatively cheap and effective. Dangers and costs can only grow if we ignore these pressures.”

DARA Trustee and advisor to the report, José María Figueres, Former President of Costa Rica, said: “Whilst it is the poorest, most vulnerable nations on earth that will bear the brunt of the climate crisis, the industrialized world is not immune from its impact. Countries such as the United States will suffer the greatest economic losses from climate change so it is clearly in their own interest to act now to address these impacts, and to mitigate climate change”.
The Monitor concludes that while the climate crisis is urgent, there is still time to act. It lists over 50 highly effective, and mostly inexpensive, measures that are readily available to limit virtually all harm caused by climate change.